A mere days after the US President Donald Trump’s personal diplomacy with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, Russia has asked Ukraine for the second round of peace talks aimed at exchanging written proposals for a ceasefire and ending the war. This provides a glimpse into what Putin’s vision of a new global order is, which he has been working to establish through his concerted efforts since 2014.
“I don’t think we’re going to have a breakthrough here until President Trump and President Putin interact directly on this topic,” said the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Antalya, Turkey on May 11.
The NATO foreign ministers meeting occurred a day before the Russian and Ukrainian delegations met for peace talks in the city of Istanbul, marking the first time Russia and Ukraine engaged in direct peace talks since the unsuccessful effort in the early weeks of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The peace talks were slated to happen on the very day of this NATO foreign ministers meeting, however, they got postponed to next day, and were concluded in less than two hours with the two sides deciding on the exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war (POWs), and also agreeing in principle to meet again for negotiations aimed at reaching a ceasefire according to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
Shortly before Rubio’s remarks, President Trump, who was also visiting the Middle East that day, made a similar suggestion saying it is highly unlikely that any significant progress in peace talks will happen until he meets with Putin in person.
“I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he (Putin) and I get together, but we’re going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying,” Trump said while speaking to the BBC on board Air Force One.
On May 19, Trump held a two-hour-long phone call with Putin, and shortly after that the latter said that he had reached an agreement with the US President that Russia will present a memorandum on a possible future peace accord, thereby providing a strongest indication that substantive talks could happen soon to end the crisis in Ukraine.
And, on May 28th, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that a second round of direct negotiations with Ukraine will take place in Istanbul on June 2nd.
“The Russian side, as agreed, has promptly developed a relevant memorandum, which sets out our position on all aspects of reliably overcoming the root causes of the crisis,” Lavrov said. “Our delegation, headed by Vladimir Medinsky, is ready to present this memorandum to the Ukrainian delegation and give the necessary explanations during the second round of resumed direct talks in Istanbul next Monday, June 2.”
Of course, a lot has happened after the phone consultations between Trump and Putin on May 19th, up until the point of Russia asking for the second round of talks with Ukraine, which makes it difficult to determine whether the ongoing negotiations are headed toward success or failure.
For instance, Russia has intensified its military operations inside Ukraine by having carried out significant and days-long bombardment of Kyiv, Odessa and other Ukrainian cities, as well as capturing four villages in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region.
This intensification of Russian military operation has brought Putin harsh criticism from Trump, which should not be dismissed but it is also important to consider that this is not the first time Trump has criticised Russia and its President Putin and it is nothing compared to the criticism levelled by Trump at Ukraine and its President Zelenskyy.
In the Author’s opinion, these instances of harshly critical rhetoric directed at both Ukraine and Russia but more so at Ukraine, is just one of Trump’s tactics to get both the sides to reach a negotiated end to their ongoing conflict as soon as possible.
This is because, last month, the Trump administration signed a profit-sharing agreement with Ukraine covering future sale of the latter’s mineral and energy reserves in exchange for the US continuing to invest in Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction.
Now, even this agreement came on the backdrop of the famous Oval Office spat between Trump and Zelenskyy. Despite this major showdown between the US and Ukrainian Presidents, negotiations continued behind the scenes in the weeks after that, followed by a private meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the funeral of Pope Francis on April 26, and just days later the deal was signed.
Now, let us come to Trump’s criticism of Putin, and Kremlin’s response to this criticism.
“I’ve known him a long time, always gotten along with him, but he’s sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don’t like it at all. We’re in the middle of talking and he’s sending rockets into Kyiv and other cities. I don’t like it at all,” said Trump about Putin during an impromptu discussion with reporters on May 25th.
The US President then followed up this statement with a post on the social media platform, Truth Social, in which he said: “I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers. Missiles and drones are being shot into Cities in Ukraine, for no reason whatsoever. I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!”
However, he also levelled criticism at the other side of the ongoing conflict by saying that the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy “is doing his Country no favors by talking the way he does. Everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop.”
Most importantly, Trump, in both his aforesaid statements, maintained that he enjoys good relationship with Putin, and in his earlier statement to the reporters noted that the talks are ongoing.
This means that negotiations are ongoing, and Russia is trying to stretch them out to increase the size of its occupation inside Ukraine, however, there is a limit to how much Russia can test the US’ patience as indicated by Trump’s use of the phrase: “the downfall of Russia”, and going by Kremlin’s response to Trump’s remarks, the Author believes that Putin understands that.
So, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, when asked about Trump calling Putin “absolutely crazy”, began by thanking Trump for his help in the start of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and then attributed his remarks to “emotional overload”.
“We are really grateful to the Americans and to President Trump personally for their assistance in organising and launching this negotiation process,” said Peskov. “Of course, at the same time, this is a very crucial moment, which is associated, of course, with the emotional overload of everyone absolutely and with emotional reactions.”
So, overall, based on things as they appear as of writing of this article, it is safe to say that with Trump being at the helm of the US’ state of affairs, Putin still has several ways to leverage the war he has been waging with Ukraine into raising Russia’s global standing.
And, in the Author’s view, the aforesaid chain of events must be taken as a strong indication that with the advent of second Trump administration in the US, Putin is on the cusp of realizing long-sought success of most, if not all of his concerted efforts since 2014.
This is the theme that is going to be explored in extensive detail in this article. So let us dive in.
Geostrategic Realities For The Russian State
It is important to understand why Russia invaded Ukraine in first place, and for that we must look into the geostrategic imperatives that drive Russia’s expansionist foreign and security policy.
Russia’s aggression in the eastern Europe is prompted by its longstanding fears of a potential invasion from its northwest, through the vast expanse of flatland called the North European Plain, which has been used repeatedly throughout history by different European invaders to attack Russia.
This is because, there are hardly any significant natural barriers – mountains, large river, sea, etc., – anywhere on the North European Plain, making it easy to march on for any force from the west.
In the past 300 years, Russia has survived three invasions from its northwest which includes the French invasion under Napoleon in 1812, followed by the German invasions twice, in both world wars, in 1914 and 1941.
During these invasions, the modern-day Ukraine and Belarus (either completely or partially) were part of the Russian state in its different iterations as the Imperial Russian Empire from 1721-1917 and the Soviet Union from 1922–1991, which is a major point of difference between the current iteration of the Russian State i.e., the Russian Federation and its predecessors.
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