With Russia having intensified its military operations in east Ukraine in recent months, and the Ukrainian forces struggling to maintain a resilient front against the numerically superior Russian military, the battlefield dynamics are increasingly shifting against Ukraine with the prospects for a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine crisis also becoming bleak.
Russia has stepped up its military operations inside Ukraine, particularly targeting the latter’s Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, in a bid to gain on the battlefield that which it could not at the negotiating table in the two rounds of peace talks with Ukraine in May and June this year.
During the 2nd round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2nd, Russia is said to have demanded that Ukraine abandon territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, which the latter categorically rejected.
Russia officially declared its annexation of the aforesaid Ukrainian Oblasts in September 2022, however, its armed forces are yet to establish complete control over these regions. So far, the Russian military has managed to occupy almost the whole of Luhansk region and roughly 70% of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
After Ukraine rejected the demand to vacate the remaining territory it holds in the aforesaid regions, Russia’s former President Dmitry Medvedev, who currently serves as the Deputy Chairman of the country’s national security council, said that Ukraine’s failure to acknowledge the battlefield realities during negotiations will result in the creation of new battlefield realities.
“Those who do not want to recognize the realities of the war at negotiations, will receive new realities on the ground,” said Medvedev in his Telegram post while referring to Russia’s fresh offensive operations in the central-eastern Ukrainian region of Dnipropetrovsk region.
Overall, Russia intends to bring the entire Donetsk Oblast under its occupation, as part of which, its armed forces are trying to gain complete control of the strategic route running through Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kostiantynivka, and Chasiv Yar regions in this Oblast.
Among the aforesaid regions, the Russian military is said to have concentrated almost half of its offensive operations this year in the vicinity of Pokrovsk, a crucial logistics and supply center for Ukrainian forces operating on the eastern front, which if falls in the Russian hands, could significantly compromise Ukraine’s capability to sustain operations throughout Donetsk Oblast and further afield.
So far, the Russian forces have reached up to five kilometers to the southwest of Pokrovsk, however, instead of charging head on toward the city, they are trying to isolate it by cutting off all logistical routes toward it, and Russia’s offensive operations in the nearby Dnipropetrovsk region are a part of this effort.
Now, the really important question is: Why does any of the above matter?
The success or failure of Russia’s recent intensified offensive operations inside eastern Ukraine can significantly impact the trajectory of the ongoing US-brokered peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which appear to have reached an impasse.
So, this article will take stock of the battlefield situation in Ukraine as well as the overall strengths and weakness of both the sides of this conflict, and based on that, attempt to gauge the prospects of the ongoing US-brokered peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Russia Continues To Make Incremental Gains In East Ukraine
Despite sustaining heavy losses in terms of lives and equipment, the Russian military continues make gruelling progress against the Ukrainian military which is both, outgunned and outmanned, at present.
In fact, the Russian troops are also said to have been advancing at their fastest pace since November 2024, while the Ukrainian troops have been struggling in repelling these relentless Russian offensives.
As discussed briefly earlier, the Russian forces have been trying to cross over into the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the territory they hold in the adjacent Donetsk Oblast. There have been claims by Russian state-owned media and pro-Russian war bloggers that the Russian military has managed to capture a village located on the edge of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
On June 30th, Russia’s state-owned RIA news agency quoted Vladimir Rogov, a member of the collaborationist military-civilian administration for the Russian occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as saying that the Russian military had taken control of the Dachne village inside the Dnipropetrovsk region.
“Our troops have advanced further in this direction and have already driven the enemy out of the village of Dachnoye. This is the first populated area in the Dnipropetrovsk region from which the enemy has been expelled,” Rogov wrote in a Telegram post.
However, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine dismissed these claims, saying that there was only a brief incursion by a small Russian reconnaissance group which managed to enter the village of Dachne and take photos with a Russian flag but the Ukrainian forces eliminated them.
It is not possible to check the veracity of claims from either side, however, a Ukrainian blog by the name of DeepState, which relies on open-source data to map the frontline, reported on July 5th that “the Russian forces occupied the villages of Zelenyi Kut and Novoukrainka in Donetsk Oblast, located near the administrative border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast” and “the situation around Dachne is pretty intense”.
That said, even if the incursion from the Russian forces into the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was a brief one as the Ukrainian military described, it should be a worrying development for the Ukrainian side which is significantly outnumbered because the logic behind the Russian effort is to widen the flanks to spread the Ukrainian forces thin, which will create chinks in the Ukrainian defense lines for the Russian infantry assault groups to exploit.
The Russians rely on four or five small infantry assault groups, which try to breach Ukraine’s defenses either on foot or motorcycles with the purpose of securing a foothold in the rear of Ukraine’s defensive lines. Many of these groups suffer losses but some still manage to break through, and while the Russians have massive number of troops to throw into these assaults and lose, the Ukrainians do not.
Moreover, these infantry assault groups are supported by attack drones, artillery, mortar, and glide bombs, which complicates Ukraine’s ability to dispatch reinforcements to critical areas or deliver medical and engineering aid.
All of this is intended to compel the outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian forces to keep making tactical withdrawals, thereby enabling the Russian military to keep inching forward.
So far, the Russian forces, utilizing the aforesaid tactics, have managed to advance up to around 5 kilometers to the southwest of Pokrovsk, as well as 10-12 kilometers toward the city’s eastern side which has also allowed them to sever the logistical route that connected this city to Kostyantynivka, another Ukrainian stronghold.
Now, if the Russians manage to penetrate inside the Dnipropetrovsk region as well, then they can try and cut off all logistical routes into Pokrovsk, thereby encircling the Ukrainian forces defending the city.
Overall, according to the Ukrainian blog DeepState, the Russian military captured 556 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in June, marking the largest Ukrainian loss of ground since November 2024, and more than half of this territory comprised regions in the vicinity of Pokrovsk and Novapavlivka.
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