India-US Relations Under Second Trump Administration
Now, India and the US got off to a very good start under the second Trump administration with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi being one of the first world leaders to visit Washington, just a few weeks after US President Donald Trump started his second term.
Also, India was amongst the first countries with which the second Trump administration entered into trade negotiations, setting an ambitious goal of doubling the bilateral trade between India and the US to US$ 500 billion by 2030.
However, mid-way through this year, things began to veer off in a very adverse direction for this continually growing and strategically very significant India-US partnership.
It all started when the Trump administration announced the ceasefire between India and Pakistan after their military skirmish in May that was triggered by the Pakistan-sponsored terror attack in India’s union territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), before either of those countries could do so themselves, as well as claimed to have mediated this ceasefire.
Moreover, two days after the aforesaid ceasefire was reached, Trump himself while addressing reporters said that he incentivised India and Pakistan by promising to increase trade of these respective countries with the US, which was instrumental in bringing about the ceasefire.
“I said, come on, we’re going to do a lot of trade with you guys. Let’s stop it. Let’s stop it. If you stop it, we’ll do a trade. If you don’t stop it, we’re not going to do any trade,’” Trump said.
“And all of a sudden, they said, I think we’re going to stop,” Trump said, crediting trade leverage for influencing both the nations’ decision. “For a lot of reasons, but trade is a big one,” he said.
Now, this put the Modi government in a difficult position as India has a long-established national policy that it will not accept any manner of third-party mediation in its territorial dispute with Pakistan.
The Indian government disputed Trump’s assertions via a press conference by India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), in which the MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal clarified that top government officials in India and the US were in touch with each other during the former’s military stand-off with Pakistan, however there was no conversation on trade, and that India maintains its long-held position that the territorial dispute with Pakistan will be addressed bilaterally only.
“The issue of trade didn’t come up in any of these discussions,” Jaiswal said, referring to the conversations held between Vice President JD Vance and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as well as between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Indian counterpart, S. Jaishankar.
“We have a longstanding national position that any issues related to the federally controlled union territory of Jammu and Kashmir must be addressed by India and Pakistan bilaterally. There has been no change to the stated policy,” Jaiswal said.
Roughly a month later, Prime Minister Modi and President Trump held a phone call in which Modi made it clear to the US leader that the ceasefire between India and Pakistan after the four-day conflict in May was reached through talks between the militaries of the two countries and not US mediation, per a press statement on June 18 by India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri.
“PM Modi told President Trump clearly that during this period, there was no talk at any stage on subjects like India-U.S. trade deal or US mediation between India and Pakistan,” Misri said in the press statement.
“Talks for ceasing military action happened directly between India and Pakistan through existing military channels, and on the insistence of Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi emphasised that India has not accepted mediation in the past and will never do,” he said.
Misri further noted that the phone call between the two leaders was held on June 17th on Trump’s insistence after they were unable to meet on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada, which Modi attended as a guest, and it lasted for 35 minutes.
Now, within hours of this phone call with Modi, Trump hosted the Pakistan Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for lunch at the White House, and this became the immediate cause for the deterioration of relations between India and the US.
India is said to have privately protested this meeting between Trump and Munir, and warned Washington that such actions could harm India-US relations, as they appeared to ignore India’s security concerns. Moreover, India also reportedly slowed down trade talks with the US and proposed retaliatory tariffs at the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
According to the White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly, Trump hosted Munir at the White House because the latter called for the US President to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for having averted a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan.
Also, shortly after Munir was hosted at the White House, the Pakistani government announced its plans to nominate US President Donald Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, citing Trump’s assistance in negotiating a ceasefire with India.
“President Trump demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship through robust diplomatic engagement with both Islamabad and New Delhi, which de-escalated a rapidly deteriorating situation,” the Pakistani government said in a post on X on June 21st. “This intervention stands as a testament to his role as a genuine peacemaker.”
Now, in an interview with Al Jazeera in May, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar had rejected claims that the US had mediated the truce between India and Pakistan, and insisted that Islamabad had acted independently.
So, nominating Trump for his assistance in reaching a ceasefire with India only a month after having denied any role by the US in reaching this ceasefire represents a complete 180-degree turnaround by Islamabad done opportunistically to exploit the disagreements between India and the US that had begun to emerge in public.
Moreover, in parallel to the aforesaid developments, the war in Ukraine was also raging on with Russia intensifying its military operations inside Ukraine and trying to stretch out the ongoing US-brokered peace negotiations, which had begun to weigh on the Trump administration, given that Trump has staked his reputation on the potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
So, the seeds of distrust that Pakistan sowed between the Trump administration and India, together with the US-brokered peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine appearing to have reached an impasse, compounded with the roadblocks that the Indian and the US teams negotiating the trade deals must be hitting, culminating into 50% tariffs by the US on Indian exports to the US.
By imposing such high tariffs on India, Trump administration seems to exhibit its commitment to not only correct the wrongs that he perceives in the trade relations with India but also to resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict by sending a message to Moscow that if the US is willing to punish even India for buying Russian oil, then it is hard to imagine other countries would escape its ire.
That said, the Trump administration has refrained so far from imposing similar punitive tariffs on other countries that are also buying large volumes of Russian energy which include China, the European Union (EU), Turkey, and South Korea.
However, per the recent media reports, President Trump has been urging the EU to impose up to 100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods to push both countries to reduce their energy purchases from Russia. It remains to be seen if the EU, which is apparently reluctant to alienate China and India, eventually acquiesces to Trump’s demands.
In late August, against the backdrop of worsening India-US relations due to Washington’s engagements with Pakistan and imposition of 50% tariffs on India, reports emerged of Prime Minister Modi having turned down four telephone calls from US President Donald Trump.
Shortly after these reports emerged, Prime Minister Modi also attended the SCO summit hosted by China from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China, in which he was seen smiling and holding hands with the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Chinese President Xi Jinping. All of this then led to the flurry of articles getting published in publications across the world which suggested that India is trying to rebalance its relations with China due to worsening ties with the US.
In line with these suggestions, President Trump himself wrote in a social media post: “Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together.”
However, later on that same day, that is on September 5th, Trump took back his words saying he does not think the US has lost India to China, and also began to tone down his rhetoric toward India. “I don’t think we have,” he told reporters when asked about his social media post earlier in the day. “I’ve been very disappointed that India would be buying so much oil, as you know, from Russia. And I let them know that.”
“I’ll always be friends with Modi,” Trump further said. “He’s a great prime minister. He’s great. I’ll always be friends, but I just don’t like what he’s doing at this particular moment. But India and the United States have a special relationship. There’s nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion.”
Next day, Prime Minister Modi also reciprocated to what could be categorised as a move by Trump to de-escalate the tensions between India and the US.
“Deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump’s sentiments and positive assessment of our ties,” the Modi said in an X post on September 6th. “India and the U.S. have a “very positive … forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership.”
Thereafter, on September 10th, Trump again took to social media to state that India and the US are “continuing negotiations to address the trade barriers”, and Modi again responded to this positively, also via social media, saying both countries “will work together to secure a brighter, more prosperous future”.
“I am pleased to announce that India and the United States of America are continuing negotiations to address the Trade Barriers between our two Nations. I look forward to speaking with my very good friend, Prime Minister Modi, in the upcoming weeks. I feel certain that there will be no difficulty in coming to a successful conclusion for both of our Great Countries!” Trump posted on Truth Social.
Now, this was perhaps the strongest indication of the India-US tensions easing, and there have been several more given by the officials from both the countries in the subsequent weeks.
However, what exact form will this easing of tensions take place in terms of India’s purchases of Russian energy and the US’ tariffs on Indian goods? That is the outstanding question.
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