In what appears to be a dramatic shift in the US President Donald Trump’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war, he recently declared that with proper support Ukraine could retake all of its territory from the Russian military occupation and has agreed to provide the Ukrainian military with targeting intelligence for long-range strikes against Russia’s energy infrastructure.
After having met with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on September 23rd on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Trump, in an apparent shift in his rhetoric about the war in Ukraine, Trump took to social media to express optimism over Ukraine’s chances of winning back the territory it has so far lost to the invading Russian military.
“After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform, ‘Truth Social’. “Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win. This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like ‘a paper tiger.’”
“Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act,” he added. “In any event, I wish both Countries well. We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them. Good luck to all!”
Furthermore, the Trump administration has also reportedly agreed to provide Ukraine with targeting intelligence for its long-range strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, though with a condition that this intelligence sharing arrangement only covers attacks on Russia’s energy-related targets.
Ukrainian armed forces, for several months now, have been repeatedly attacking Russia’s oil and gas installations, primarily utilizing long-range drones, and to a lesser extent, their domestically developed and produced cruise missiles.
Now, with the provision of targeting intelligence from the United States, the Ukrainian military could potentially increase the destructive capability of its long-range attacks by focussing them on the most vulnerable nodes in Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Also, per the media reports, the Trump administration’s decision to share targeting intelligence with the Ukrainian military is probably a precursor to the eventual provision of long-range and more powerful weaponry to Ukraine, intended for use against similar targets and possibly others deep within Russian territory.
Several suggestions have been floating around, as to what long-range weapons the US could provide Ukraine with reports indicating that the Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, which can strike targets as far away as around 1,000 miles (1609.34 km), armed with a 1,000-pound unitary warhead (roughly 454 kg), could be part of the package.
President Zelensky of Ukraine has confirmed that he had requested Tomahawks from Trump, following which, the US Vice President JD Vance said that the Trump administration was considering Ukraine’s request.
Already, the Trump administration has greenlighted Ukraine’s use of American-made stand-off weapons inside Russia on a case-by-case basis as has been confirmed by Keith Kelogg, the US Special Envoy to Ukraine, in an interview to Fox News on September 27th, and there have also been reports about Ukraine having used the US-made Army High Mobility Rocket System (HIMARS) for its attack on a thermal power plant near the Russian city of Belgorod on September 28th, only a day after Kelogg’s revelation.
So, overall, there seems to be a substantial shift in the Trump administration’s stance on the Ukraine crisis, however, the question worth asking is what has led to this shift in the stance? Or, more appropriately, is this a real shift or just another one of Trump’s negotiating tactic.
This is not to say that the Trump administration is not seriously considering providing Ukraine with more powerful long-range weaponry. It is just that the endgame of this move according to the Author, is not necessarily Ukraine retaking its lost lands from the Russian military occupation.
Per the Author’s assessment, President Trump’s goal is still to bring about a negotiated end to the conflict in Ukraine, and therefore, this article is going to try and figure out how his decision to provide targeting intelligence and possibly even long-range weapons to Ukraine eventually figures into his pursuit of this goal.
So, let us begin.
Can Russia Be Forced To Come To The Negotiating Table?
In an article published on June 1st, titled, ‘Trump, Putin, and Ukraine: A Geopolitical Turning Point?’, the Author had made an assertion that instances of Trump’s harshly critical rhetoric directed at Russia and its President Vladimir Putin, is just one of Trump’s tactics to get Russia to reach a negotiated end to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine as soon as possible.
In particular, the Author discussed two critical remarks that Trump made about Putin on May 25th, and pointed out that even while criticizing, he repeatedly iterated how he has good relationship with his Russian counterpart, and did not fail to note that the negotiations are ongoing.
Based on this, it was concluded in that article that the negotiations are ongoing, and Russia is trying to stretch them out to increase the size of its occupation inside Ukraine, however, there is a limit to how much Russia can test the US’ or rather Trump’s patience as indicated by Trump’s use of the phrase: “the downfall of Russia”, in one of his aforesaid critical remarks.
Thereafter, the article also discussed Kremlin’s response to Trump’s remarks to substantiate another one of the Author’s assertions that Putin understands where the limits of Trump’s patience lie.
Overall, that article concluded that with the advent of second Trump administration in the US, Putin is on the cusp of realizing long-sought success of most, if not all of his concerted efforts since 2014.
Now, those efforts have been discussed in extensive detail in that article, so they will not be reiterated here.
Roughly a month after this article, the Author wrote another piece on July 9th, in which I discussed the inherent risk of this entire dynamic of Putin stalling the negotiations to enable the Russian military to increase the size of its occupation inside Ukraine.
I did this by discussing the battlefield situation in Ukraine as well as the overall strengths and weakness of both the sides of this conflict, and based on that, postulating a scenario wherein the Ukrainian military which is exhausted in terms of personnel and ammunition could eventually lose its ability to hold the front against the numerically superior Russian armed forces who are making grinding advances on the ground every month with increasing pace.
“The possibility that the Ukrainian armed forces are no longer able to replenish its troops and ammunition, and its defensive lines finally collapse, potentially within months, is very much real and stronger than ever before since the onset of this conflict in February 2022.” – These were the Author’s exact words in that article.
This was basically intended to be a warning for the Trump administration against waiting for too long.
This is because, if the Russian armed forces manage to breakthrough the Ukrainian defensive lines, then officials in Kremlin may start to eye a bigger prize, which is the expansion of Russian occupation in Ukraine all the way up to the Odessa Oblast, in order to cut off Ukraine’s access to sea and putting it at a grave disadvantage economically by forcing it to depend on Russia for trade and commerce.
In that case, it is highly likely that cutting off Ukraine’s access to sea becomes more incentivizing for Kremlin than any economic incentives the Trump administration has to offer to Russia to bring it to the negotiating table.
And now, after having set that backdrop, let us discuss the events following the publication of this article, which in the Author’s view, are Trump’s way of conveying to Putin how he could bring about “the downfall of Russia” as he had threatened on May 25th, if Russia continues to stall the peace negotiations.
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