Will China Move To Occupy Taiwan’s Offshore Islands?

China’s belligerence against Taiwan has undergone a massive shift from occasional military exercises triggered by political developments in Taipei, to a sustained military presence around the island nation in a manner that impinges on Taiwan’s sovereignty but remains or appears far below the threshold of a conflict.

At the beginning of this year, the Author published an article titled, ‘Taiwan in an Unfolding Crisis: Are We Witnessing a Boiling Frog Scenario?’, in which he had said that the word ‘CRISIS’ could soon become a normal feature of the Taiwan Strait, judging by the Chinese activities in the waters surrounding Taiwan up until that point since mid-2022.

In particular, that article had discussed the uptick in China’s military exercises in waters surrounding Taiwan since August 2022, and how this is probably Beijing’s bid to set the new normal in the region by increasing the frequency and the overall scope of its military exercises as well as the gray zone tactics it has been engaging in against the island nation, in a manner that would appear far below the threshold of conflict to keep Tapei and its allies guessing about Beijing’s true intention.

It has been roughly nine months since the publication of that article, and it can be safely said that the Author’s assessment has become a reality, not only based on China’s increasingly frequent incursions and maritime operations in waters surrounding Tawain and its outlying islands, but also the observations made by the defense officials in Taiwan and the United States in recent months.

“The Chinese communists have adopted routine grey zone harassment tactics, combined with joint combat readiness patrols, targeted military exercises and cognitive warfare, posing a comprehensive threat to us,” the Taiwanese defense ministry said in a report released in October 2025.

Also, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), Admiral Samuel Paparo warned in May 2025 that China is hastily escalating preparations for a military attack on Taiwan by invoking the same metaphor of the ‘boiling frog’ that the Author had used in his aforementioned article in January 2025.

“You know the metaphor of boiling the frog. Well, it’s a rapid boil. We notice quick change,” Paparo said at a conference hosted by the McCain Institute on May 2^nd to voice his concerns over the pace and scope of China’s evolving military exercises in waters around Taiwan.

“The rates of change on the depth and breadth of their exercises is the one non-linear effect that I’ve seen in the last year that wakes me up at night or keeps me up at night,” he was quoted as by the Financial Times (FT) saying while attending the annual Sedona Forum at the McCain Institute in Arizona.

So, the question at this point is where are things headed for China and Taiwan from here on.

In the aforementioned article, the only Chinese grey zone tactic that was discussed by the Author was of alleged severing of Taiwan’s undersea cables by Chinese vessels, and the Author also briefly suggested that perhaps China could try and absorb one or more of Taiwan’s outlying islands in the near term.

The islands in question are the archipelagos of Kinmen and Matsu, and Pratas (or Dongsha) Atoll. Kinmen and Matsu are vulnerable because they are located more than 100 miles (or more than 160 kilometers (km)) from Taiwan but just off the coast of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

So, the westernmost of the Matsu islands is located roughly six miles (or 9.65 km) from the Chinese coast, while the main island of Kinmen is located merely two miles (or 3.21 km) from the Chinese city of Xiamen, which figures largely in Beijing’s strategy to absorb Kinmen.

While the Dongsha Islands are vulnerable due to their position at a crucial chokepoint that links the South China Sea with the Taiwan Strait and the Bashi Channel. This strategic location allows for potential militarization, enabling them to serve as a gatekeeper to obstruct movements between the South China Sea and East Asia, thereby making them crucial for Japan’s sea lane security as well.¹

Also important to note is that the US Department of Defense’s 2024 China Military Power Report (CMPR) states that occupying Kinmen and Matsu islands is “within the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army” while Dongsha is easily capturable for the PLA.

Therefore, this article will delve into the possibility of China trying to take Taiwan’s offshore islands in the near- to mid-term by discussing other Chinese grey zone tactics like illegal fishing, dredging, and oil drilling activities in waters around aforesaid islands, and take a closer look at China’s coast guard activity as well as some of China’s economic enticements to manipulate public opinion on these islands in a bid to undermine Taiwan’s control of these islands.

So, let us begin.

China’s Grey Zone Tactics Targeted At Taiwan’s Offshore Islands

Based on the PRC’s ‘One-China’ Principle that declares “both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China” and “the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affairs”, China contends that Taiwan lies inside its territorial boundaries which gives it the right to undertake commercial activities in the Taiwan Strait and the waters surrounding Taiwan.

In 1992, Taiwan enacted the “Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area” to address the issues related to its unique relationship with China.

Per the article 32 of this act, in the event that any vessel of the Mainland China enters, without permission, inside what Taiwan refers to as the restricted and prohibited waters of the Taiwan Area, the competent authorities may drive it away, confiscate both the ship and its cargo, detain individuals on board, or undertake any necessary defensive measures.

However, many Chinese vessels still enter these waters because China does not recognize Taiwan’s claims and most of these are fishing boats that do illegal fishing inside Taiwan’s restricted or prohibited waters in areas around its offshore islands of Kinmen, Matsu and Dongsha.

In areas around the Matsu and Kinmen group of islands, these waters are only a few miles away from China’s coast which causes a huge overlap in the area of operations of the Chinese and Taiwanese fishermen there.

Now, these Chinese cross-border fishing boats are seen as part of Beijing’s gray zone strategy because their sheer numbers and their almost uninterrupted illegal fishing activities have adversely affected the operations of Taiwanese local fishermen.

Notably, the Chinese fishing vessels operating in the waters near Kinmen and Matsu typically have a tonnage exceeding 100 metric tons. whereas, the Taiwanese fishing boats from Kinmen and Matsu are predominantly under 5 metric tons, with only a limited number of them surpassing the 100 metric ton mark.

So, this huge difference in tonnage between the Chinese and Taiwanese fishing vessels, in an environment with limited fishery resources, puts the Taiwanese fishermen at a disadvantage resulting into most of the fishery resources being captured by Chinese fishing boats.

Also, some unruly Chinese fishing boats even deliberately confiscate or tow away the net gear of Kinmen and Matsu fishing boats.

As for Dongsha Atoll, Taiwan has banned all manner of fishing and angling in waters around these islands, which are the site of its first marine national park, dedicated to the protection of marine ecosystems and serving as the premier marine conservation zone in the country.

However, this does not stop Chinese fishermen from engaging in illegal and large-scale fishing operations which entails some destructive measures such as butchering protected species like green sea turtles and cyanide fishing – using cyanide to poison fish which destroys marine habitats.

Besides illegal fishing activities, there are also Chinese sand dredging vessels that have been illegally extracting sand and gravel inside Taiwan’s claimed Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and waters of Kinmen and Matsu.

Now, these illegal Chinese dredging activities could potentially result into changes to Taiwan’s coastlines and the destruction of its marine ecosystems, which will also cause depletion of fisheries resources in the region.

Therefore, Chinese sand dredging vessels are also considered part of the PRC’s gray zone strategy because their excessive sand extraction activities could gradually reduce Taiwan’s land area thereby affecting its territorial security.

Other than the illegal fishing activities, China has also been undertaking illegal oil drilling inside the EEZ off the Dongsha islands, per a report by the US-based Jamestown Foundation in September 2025.

According to the aforesaid report, state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) has set up 12 permanent or semi-permanent oil rig structures and various associated vessels nearly 30 miles (or 48km) from the restricted waters of Dongsha Island.

At present these rigs are only undermining Taiwan’s jurisdiction in this region but experts suggest that they can also be militarized to support operations against Dongsha island and potentially Taiwan as a whole.

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