U.S. authorities are examining a series of unusually timed oil trades worth more than $2.6 billion that were placed shortly before major announcements linked to the Iran conflict sent crude prices sharply lower, according to media reports and market data reviewed by analysts.
The probe, reportedly involving the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is focused on whether traders may have gained advance access to sensitive information tied to military and diplomatic developments involving Washington and Tehran. ABC News first reported details of the investigation, while market commentary from The Kobeissi Letter and other analysts drew broader attention to the trades.
The trades centered on large bearish positions against crude oil prices that were executed minutes or hours before market-moving developments became public.
Per the data cited in the news reports, traders placed more than US$ 500 million in bets against oil prices on March 23rd, roughly 15 minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would delay threatened attacks on Iran’s power grid. Oil prices fell sharply after the announcement.
Another major trade reportedly occurred on April 7th, when roughly US$ 950 million to US$ 960 million in bearish oil positions were opened hours before President Trump announced a temporary ceasefire linked to the conflict.
Thereafter, on April 17th, traders reportedly placed about US$ 760 million in bets on declining oil prices approximately 20 minutes before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on social media that the Strait of Hormuz remained open to commercial shipping.
A further US$ 430 million in short oil trades was allegedly placed on April 21st, just 15 minutes before Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire, according to the report by ABC News.
Separately, The Kobeissi Letter highlighted another suspicious episode this week after nearly US$ 1 billion in crude oil short positions were opened about an hour before Axios reported that the United States and Iran were nearing a deal to end the conflict. Following the report, Brent crude prices fell by as much as 11.9%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped more than 13% before paring losses.
These repeated timings and scales of the trades had raised fresh concerns among investors and online analysts over possible market manipulation or insider access to geopolitical developments.
Former JPMorgan quantitative strategist Marko Kolanovic commented on the market swings by saying investors were operating in “blatantly manipulated markets,” according to Business Insider.
Meanwhile, Eric Nuttall, a partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, suggested that energy investors should concentrate on market conditions “on the day after” the turbulence subsides, saying that daily price swings “may be intentionally induced for nefarious reasons.
The media reports note that the trading data reviewed so far does not identify the individuals or firms behind the positions and does not in itself prove insider trading or criminal wrongdoing. However, the scale and timing of the trades have intensified scrutiny from regulators, lawmakers, and market observers, potentially setting up one of the most significant investigations into wartime-related market activity in recent years.
Tanmay Kadam is a geopolitical observer based in India. He has experience working as a Defense and International Affairs journalist for EurAsian Times. He can be contacted at tanmaykadam700@gmail.com.