Russian military experts and officials conducted a command-and-staff exercise simulating a large-scale Ukrainian assault on Crimea, underscoring growing concern in the Kremlin over the possibility of future operations against the peninsula amid Ukraine’s sustained campaign of long-range strikes targeting Russian military and logistics infrastructure in and around Crimea.
The exercise, dubbed ‘Crimean Wake-Up,’ was disclosed by Russian military expert Viktor Murakhovsky, who is a retired colonel, a former officer of the Russian General Staff, and currently the Editor-in-Chief of the military magazine ‘Arsenal Otechestva’ (or ‘Arsenal of the Fatherland’)
Mr. Murakhovsky, who was also among the participants in the exercise that took place on July 2nd, said that it involved reserve and retired Russian military officers who simulated a Ukrainian amphibious operation in which the ‘blue’ force, representing Ukraine, employed unconventional tactics entailing advanced detection and strike systems, while the ‘red’ force, representing Russian troops, fought from defensive positions.
He also shared an image from the exercise showing a map of Crimea and the surrounding Black Sea, which according to The Insider – a Russian publication that specialises in investigative journalism – is based on the Soviet-era SK-42 topographic coordinate system, and appeared to be generated using SGR Ravelin, a specialised geographic information system software reportedly used by Russian security agencies to display operational battlefield data.
In the image, the map can be seen having several blue arrows extending from the Odesa region and the northwestern Black Sea toward Crimea, suggesting an amphibious or maritime assault. While the Russian defensive deployments, denoted with red markings, are seen concentrated around Sevastopol, northern Crimea, and the eastern part of the peninsula, indicating the areas Russian planners consider most vulnerable to a potential Ukrainian attack.
The drills come as the recent Ukrainian long-range strikes intensify pressure on Russian logistics in and around, as well as critical infrastructure inside, the Crimean Peninsula.
This systemic long-range strike campaign has targeted fuel depots, power infrastructure, bridges, logistic hubs and military assets in Crimea that sustain the Russian war effort in southern Ukraine. As a result, Russia’s ability to move supplies across the peninsula and along the land corridor linking Crimea with occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine has been complicated.
The Ukrainian campaign has also imposed growing economic and operational costs on Russia, with fuel shortages having spread across Crimea, prompting authorities to restrict fuel sales, while long queues, transport disruptions and higher prices have affected residents and military logistics alike.
Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, have acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes have contributed to the shortages, although the Kremlin maintains the situation remains under control. Experts say the sustained pressure is eroding Russia’s logistical resilience and exposing vulnerabilities in its rear-area support network.
While the Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have consistently stated that restoring control over the peninsula remains an objective but have not announced plans for an imminent amphibious assault on Crimea. Instead, the latest sustained strikes on Crimea are a part of the broader 40-day campaign approved by President Zelenskiy to increase pressure on Russia and compel it to end the war.
However, Russian military experts and media outlets have in recent weeks warned that Ukraine could attempt a renewed operation against Crimea during the summer, potentially involving amphibious landings on the peninsula alongside efforts to seize the nearby Tendrivska and Kinburn spits.
They argue such operations would seek to establish footholds around the Dnipro estuary and Tendra Bay as part of a broader campaign targeting Crimea, although no evidence has emerged so far that would support these assertions.
For instance, a recent report by a leading weekly newspaper in Russia, Argumenty i Fakty (AiF) (or Arguments and Facts) which interviewed Russian Navy Captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin as well as cited some unnamed sources, claimed that Russia carried out pre-emptive strikes against what it described as Ukrainian troop concentrations and training camps near the Southern Buh River and around the cities of Ochakiv and Kherson.
The report alleged that several thousand Ukrainian troops, supported by armored vehicles and more than 100 high-speed boats and landing craft, had been preparing for a maritime assault before the strikes disrupted the operation. The claims, including reports of heavy Ukrainian losses and destroyed watercraft, could not be independently verified.
“There’s a lot of talk about a possible landing on Crimea, but I want to point out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are constantly raiding the Kinburn Spit using imported boats. The militants are constantly being destroyed, and some of them are escaping. The Kinburn Spit is a major concern for them. It was once part of the Mykolaiv Oblast, and Ochakiv is clearly visible from there. And Ochakiv, as is well known, is home to a training center for Ukrainian terrorists and saboteurs. This center is overseen by British intelligence services,” retired Russian Navy Captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin told AiF.
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Likewise, Yuri Knutov, a retired Soviet Air Defence Forces colonel who is also one of the leading commentators on Russian military affairs as well as the Director of Air Defence Forces Museum, told Gazeta.Ru in late June that Ukraine may be preparing a large-scale amphibious operation in Crimea.
“A month ago, Ukraine withdrew its marine units from the front and sent them to the rear, most likely to prepare for an amphibious operation. Naturally, landing craft are being prepared. Therefore, fortifying the Crimean coast, mining the approaches, and being ready to meet these high-speed boats, which are planned to carry the landing forces, is a top priority,” he said.
However, Mr. Knutov believes that such an amphibious operation will not be aimed at seizing Crimea but instead at inflicting significant damage on Russian forces stationed on the peninsula.
Tanmay Kadam is a geopolitical observer based in India. He has experience working as a Defence and International Affairs journalist for EurAsian Times. He can be contacted at tanmaykadam700@gmail.com.