Japan’s recent diplomatic and business engagements with Russia are suggestive of a limited thaw in bilateral ties despite sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Concerns over energy security and stalled talks over the disputed Kuril Islands appear to be shaping Tokyo’s cautious engagement with Moscow.
Japan sent a delegation to Russia from May 25th to 28th to protect the interests and assets of Japanese companies operating there despite Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The Japanese government officials said maintaining communication channels with Russia remained important for Japanese businesses.
The visit by the Japanese delegation to Russia is the latest in a series of engagements between Japanese and Russian officials in recent weeks, even as relations deteriorated sharply following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Tokyo has joined Western sanctions against Moscow, while Russia has responded with countermeasures and suspended peace treaty negotiations with Japan over their long-running territorial dispute.
As a consequence, bilateral trade between the two countries declined from US$ 20.8 billion in 2021 to just US$ 7.6 billion in 2025. The number of Japanese companies doing business in Russia has decreased to about two-thirds of what it was before the invasion.
That said, more than 100 Japanese companies continue to maintain operations in Russia, including trading houses Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Corporation, which retain minority stakes in the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project, after Russia reorganised the project’s ownership structure following the exit of several major global energy firms after the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022.
So, the Japanese delegation was said to have included representatives from the aforesaid companies, per some media reports.
The Sakhalin-2 project, operated by Russia’s state-owned Gazprom, has been exempted from sanctions due to its importance as a key crude oil source for Japan, which is a participant in its management, with Mitsui & Co. holding a 12.5% stake and Mitsubishi Corporation owning a 10% share.
Japanese officials said the delegation aimed to gather information on local business conditions and exchange views with Russian counterparts on issues affecting Japanese firms. They stressed that the trip did not signal any shift in Japan’s sanctions policy or its support for Ukraine.
Does Japan’s Renewed Engagement With Russia Signal a Potential Thaw in Bilateral Relations?
The latest talks between Japanese and Russian officials followed a May 11 appearance in Tokyo by Mikhail Shvydkoi, the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special representative for international cultural cooperation, who attended the opening ceremony of the official Festival of Russian Culture in Japan. Among the notable Japanese attendees was Akie Abe, whose late husband and former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe had long advocated closer ties and cooperation with Russia during his tenure in office.
Roughly a week before, that is on May 3-5, veteran Japanese lawmaker Muneo Suzuki, a member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party with longstanding ties to Russia who previously served as an informal advisor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, traveled to Moscow for talks with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko, where the two discussed the possibility of a meeting between the Japanese and Russian foreign ministers in July on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in the Philippines.
Also, while officially in Japan as Russia’s cultural envoy, Mikhail Shvydkoi also held discussions with Mr Suzuki at Japan’s parliament on May 12, wherein he is said to have suggested vice-ministerial-level talks prior to the Japan-Russia foreign ministers’ meeting as well as discussed potential bilateral energy cooperation, following which he also met with Japan’s administrative vice foreign minister, Funakoshi Takehiro.
Furthermore, on May 4th, Japan received a shipment of crude oil from Russia’s Sakhalin-2 project, which is also a rare occurrence since 2022.
So, this recent uptick in political and commercial engagements between Japan and Russia has fuelled speculation about a possible easing of tensions between the two countries.
There have been reports reminiscing about the years when former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was pursuing dialogue with Russia for economic cooperation and resolution of the bilateral territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands, and pointing out that Japan’s current Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is a protege of Mr Abe, possibly in a bid to suggest Japan’s return to the Abe era.
However, such expectations could be overly optimistic at this stage, especially considering the substantial geopolitical shifts that have occurred since the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
As Mr. Abe had explained in an interview after his retirement, he was pursuing dialogue with Russia to keep it from moving closer to China so that the two countries do not pose a united front against Japan, however, his efforts failed to yield any measure of returns, and since 2022, Russia and China have been forging much closer partnership, making it even more difficult for Japan to drive a wedge between these two countries.
Any real chance Tokyo could have at drawing Moscow away from Beijing can only emerge if and when the war in Ukraine comes to an end, however, the U.S. efforts at mediating a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine have been stalled, partly because of the U.S.’ war against Iran and partly due to the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict itself.
This is because, the U.S. President Donald Trump, who was very close with Mr. Abe, has also been undertaking concerted efforts to improve US-Russia relations since his first term with the intention of pulling Russia away from China, and while the current war he has waged jointly with Iran may be taking much of his attention, his position on Russia-China alliance and the war in Ukraine remains unchanged, per the Author’s observation.
So, until the crisis in Ukraine is resolved, it does not seem sensible for the current Japanese leadership to even begin to consider the level of re-engagement with Russia that late Mr Abe pursued, unsuccessfully so, during his tenure as Japan’s Prime Minister.
Unless, of course, the Japanese leadership knows something in advance.