Unravelling Geopolitics Warned of This 16 Months Ago: China’s Coast Guard Targeted Commercial Shipping East of Taiwan in early June

China’s recent attempt to exercise coast guard authority over foreign commercial shipping east of Taiwan has triggered international concern and prompted Taiwan to rehearse responses to a potential maritime blockade, highlighting Beijing’s evolving form of pressure campaign against the island nation.

The episode began earlier this month when China dispatched its coast guard vessels to waters on the Pacific side of Taiwan as part of what it described as a ‘special maritime traffic law-enforcement operation’.

The move followed an announcement by Japan and the Philippines that they would begin formal talks on maritime delimitation, which irked Beijing as these talks would cover waters around Taiwan claimed by China.

According to Taiwan’s Coast Guard, Chinese vessels repeatedly radioed foreign merchant ships transiting the area, requesting information such as their ports of departure and destination while asserting Chinese jurisdiction over the waters.

Taiwanese authorities accused the Chinese ships of harassing commercial traffic and immediately challenged the claims, broadcasting messages that the waters were not under Beijing’s authority and advising merchant vessels to ignore the inquiries.

Taiwan said at least three commercial vessels received such communications, while China said its coast guard inspected 198 vessels, “rectified ​violations” involving three ships, undertook hydrographic mapping activities and patrolled waters hosting undersea cable networks.

While the ships are said to have continued their voyages without interruption, and there were no reports of boardings, inspections, seizures or direct interference with navigation, the incident marked one of the most prominent attempts by the China Coast Guard (CCG) to project regulatory authority over international shipping east of Taiwan’s main island.

The waters east of Taiwan are strategically significant because they provide direct access to the Pacific Ocean and serve as a key route for international commercial shipping, and therefore, China’s attempts at exercising its jurisdiction over commercial traffic there have become cause for international concern.

The United States, Britain, France and Germany issued warnings over what they described as novel Chinese activities off Taiwan’s east coast.

“China’s actions are deeply destabilizing,” ​a U.S. State Department spokesperson said about the reports of Chinese Coast Guard vessels having harassed commercial ships.

“We reject any assertion by ​China of authority to interfere with freedoms of navigation or overflight, the freedom to lay cables, or other lawful uses of the sea,” the U.S. official said, adding that such activities undermined the peaceful settlement of issues that Beijing claims it seeks.

Also, de facto diplomatic missions of Britain, France and Germany in Taipei also voiced concern over China’s actions, in what reports describe as a rare joint statement.

“These actions threaten regional stability and ​the freedom of navigation and safety of international shipping. We reiterate our opposition to any unilateral change to the status quo, particularly by threat ‌or use ⁠of force or coercion,” they said.

“It is fundamental that all navigational rights and freedoms and the safety of seafarers and vessels are guaranteed and respected.”

Now, it is important to note here that this development is broadly consistent with a February 2025 assessment by Unraavelling Geopolitics, which projected that China could pursue such measures in the Taiwan Strait within the following 6–12 months.

While the latest incident has occurred roughly four months beyond that timeframe, and in the waters east of Taiwan instead of the Taiwan Strait, the Author did correctly assess the direction of Beijing’s evolving strategy and came reasonably close to estimating when such a development would materialise.

At the time, the Author was focused on promoting Unraavelling Geopolitics on Substack, so this assessment was published exclusively on Substack, titled, ‘Understanding Business Risks Amidst Increasing China-Taiwan Tensions’ (Refer to the image below 👇🏻)

Overall, the intent behind these coast guard patrols is to erode Taiwan’s jurisdiction over its waters, and the next step Beijing could look to take in pursuit of that endeavour is to position its coast guard vessels near the approaches to major ports on Taiwan’s eastern and/or western coast, to inspect ships bound for the island.

The coast guard could be backed by China’s maritime militia. While these vessels may look like fishing boats, they have an alternative purpose, which is that of swarming in large numbers around Taiwan to aid in the surveillance of the waters.

China could conduct such law enforcement actions for a few days or extend them over multiple weeks, potentially focusing on one or more ports simultaneously. This allows Beijing to carefully calibrate the degree of pressure it exerts on Taiwan.

Or, China can also conduct military drill(s) with participation of its coast guard, especially live-fire exercises like the one it did in August 2022,  in response to the then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which forced the airlines to cancel or divert their flights between Southeast and Northeast Asia, and caused a 28% decrease in the number of vessels calling at the Taiwanese Port of Kaohsiung.

Overall, an analysis of radar satellite images of the region carried out by Federico Acosta Rainis, a data specialist at the Pulitzer Center’s Environment Investigations Unit, showed that the number of large ships such as container ships, bulk carriers and tankers, decreased by more than 50% in the international waters of the Strait during this exercise.

Some companies decided to reroute their ships to Taiwan’s east coast to avoid the Strait, which involves three extra sailing days, and others postponed loading their cargoes until the following week to avoid risks, which resulted in delays and increased costs for maritime traffic.

So, China could look to conduct similar military drills or law-enforcement patrols, or a combination of both, for longer durations and more frequently with shorter durations between such consecutive drills. In any case, there could be mild disruptions to the maritime trade passing through the waters around Taiwan.

In geopolitical risk terms, this could hurt Taiwan’s competitiveness as a business destination by creating an impression that Taiwanese supply chains are no longer reliable, prompting multinationals to consider shifting operations to lower-risk countries in the region.

Taipei appears to be well aware of this risk, as is evident from the tabletop exercise that Taiwanese officials conducted on June 25^th, simulating a Chinese maritime blockade scenario in which ships bound for Taiwan would be required to obtain approval from Beijing and could face inspection, boarding or seizure by Chinese authorities.

The exercise was said to have envisioned a coordinated response, with Taiwan’s coast guard taking frontline law-enforcement measures while the military launched immediate combat readiness drills.

In addition to that, the defence and foreign ministries of Taiwan, along with other government agencies, would mount an international campaign arguing that any Chinese boarding or inspection of vessels would violate international law and undermine freedom of navigation.

Tanmay Kadam is a geopolitical observer based in India. He has experience working as a Defence and International Affairs journalist for EurAsian Times. He can be contacted at tanmaykadam700@gmail.com.